Modeling of the Integral Index of Investment and Innovation Security

Lunina, I. and Nazukova, N. and Kvasha, T. and Korshun, Natalia (2024) Modeling of the Integral Index of Investment and Innovation Security Digital Economy Concepts and Technologies Workshop 2024, 3665. pp. 88-96. ISSN 1613-0073

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The study is devoted to solving the theoretical and applied problem of assessment of the investment and innovation security status of Ukraine based on the modeling of the Integral index of investment and innovation security and on identifying the interrelationships between different indicators characterizing innovation and investment spheres of Ukraine. The Integral (composite) index model was tested based on actual data from Ukraine for the period 2014–2022 using methods of data normalization and determination of characteristic values of the factor variables based on international experience and analysis of national regulatory restrictions for relevant indicators. Integration of factor variables into the Integral index estimates was carried out based on weighting coefficients calculated both based on expert evaluation method and alternative statistical methods: correlation analysis, pairwise correlation between GDP growth rates and every factor variable, as well as the principal component method. It has been proven that when identifying weak associations between indicators of innovative development and GDP dynamics, determining the weights of indicators based on their correlation with GDP growth rates leads to an overestimation of the Integral index of investment and innovation security. The proposed statistical methods for calculating the weighting coefficients of the variables in the model do not lead to distortion of trends in investment and innovation security, and therefore ensure obtaining consistent and, in contrast to the expert evaluation method, unbiased estimates of the status of investment and innovation security of the country. The results obtained are important in the context of solving strategic problems to prevent risks for the investment and innovation security of Ukraine and forming an innovative foundation for the revival of Ukraine’s economy.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Integral (composite) index; investment and innovation security; statistical weighting methods; expert evaluation; robustness and sensitivity testing
Subjects: Статті у базах даних > Scopus
Divisions: Факультет інформаційних технологій та математики > Кафедра інформаційної та кібернетичної безпеки ім. професора Володимира Бурячка
Depositing User: Павло Миколайович Складанний
Date Deposited: 08 May 2024 08:33
Last Modified: 08 May 2024 08:33

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