Modeling of Structural Changes in the Employment as the Direction of Economic Security Risk Management

Ільїч, Людмила Миколаївна and Глушак, Оксана Михайлівна and Семеняка, Світлана Олексіївна and Shestack, Y. (2023) Modeling of Structural Changes in the Employment as the Direction of Economic Security Risk Management Cybersecurity Providing in Information and Telecommunication Systems 2023, 3421. pp. 46-55. ISSN 1613-0073

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Abstract

In the context of economic security development, attention is focused on solving complex theoretical and applied problems that describe the relationships between various economic objects. In terms of building strategies for managing economic security, a mathematical model of economic security risks has been developed and analyzed. The risks of economic security at the regional and state levels are identified: the risks of employment transformation associated with the aging of the population, the risk of maintaining a significant share of inefficient jobs, the risk of limited access of human capital carriers to productive jobs, the risk of volatility of labor income, the risk of growth in educational and qualification inconsistency of human capitalwith the needs of the economy. An economic-mathematical model of structural transformations in the sphere of employment of the population depending on the dynamics of the growth of the level of employment of the population in the main sectors of the economy (agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; industry; construction) based on statistical data of the Kyiv region was built and researched. Attention is focused on the selection procedure of factor variables that should be a part of the econometric model, which is one of the key aspects that are studied while constructing a multivariate regression equation. The coefficients of correlation, elasticity, and the average value of the relative error of approximation were calculated and analyzed, and the built model was tested for statistical significance using the Fisher test. Based on the results of the analysis, the model is adequate, statistically significant, and suitable for point and interval forecasting. The article identifies the main threats to the economic security of Ukraine: the mass migration of the population with higher education during the war, and the migration of children and youth, which in the period of post-war reconstruction will be manifested by a shortage of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the workforce. The priorities for restoring Ukraine’s macroeconomic security are indicated. A theoretical analysis of economic security in terms of various spheres of the economy was carried out, in particular, the threats to the macroeconomic security of Ukraine related to employment and the search for ways to overcome them were described in detail.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Economic security; risks in the sphere of employment of population; labor market; employment of population; structural transformations in the sphere of employment; economic and mathematical modeling.
Subjects: Статті у наукометричних базах > Scopus
Divisions: Факультет економіки та управління > Кафедра управління
Факультет інформаційних технологій та математики > Кафедра комп'ютерних наук
Факультет інформаційних технологій та математики > Кафедра математики і фізики
Depositing User: викладач Людмила Миколаївна Ільїч
Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2023 12:44
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2023 14:57
URI: https://elibrary.kubg.edu.ua/id/eprint/47046

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